Brian Fagan. 2000. Floods, Famine, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilization. Basic Books. 260 pages, with notes and sources
The incredibly prolific science writer and archaeologist Brian Fagan has written another provocative text aimed at the general public, entitled Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations. In it, Fagan proposes what most archaeologists will recognize as an old chestnut: climate change is seen as a--if not the--major determinant of cultural change. The twist is that rather than considering simply localized or regional droughts or flooding, Fagan points to the enormous amount of data being gathered on the climatic phenomena known collectively as ENSO--the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Fagan's main point is that the global weather patterns during and resulting from the El Niños that we've seen in the modern world are patterns of very long standing indeed. As in Peru during the winter of 1997-1998, the effects of the El Niño storm on people and our cultures can be catastrophic and wide-reaching. According to Fagan's thesis, in the ancient past, these catastrophes have destroyed civilizations.
The book is broken into three parts, described in a brief preface. The first part, called "The Christmas Child," discusses what scientists understand about the El Niño phenomenon, and how they know it. Part Two, called "El Niños in Antiquity," discusses the effects of El Niño on the civilizations of Old Kingdom Egypt, and the Moche, Maya, and Anasazi peoples. In Part Three, "Climate Change and the Stream of Time," Fagan compares the factors affecting social change today (carrying capacity, population, governments) to those of the past, and concludes that today our social fabric is as much, if not more vulnerable to the brutal damage caused by catastrophic weather patterns. As is always true with Brian Fagan's books, Floods, Famines, and Emperors is a fascinating, well-written book, suitable for both professional archaeologists and the general public. It is a fine example of how understanding the past can prepare us for the future.
Disclosure: A review copy was provided by the publisher. For more information, please see our Ethics Policy.
