Solving the exact puzzle of the exit pathways and timing from Africa is difficult, because a) the fossil record is so darn patchy and b) ancient DNA hasn't survived adequately for us to parse it. But a research team, led by Philipp Gunz of the University of Vienna & Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, has come up with a new strategy, and a new theory, which I'm going to call Isolation by Distance. The report was published in the March 23rd issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The researchers measured the morphology of crania—the shapes of skull caps—from early anatomically modern humans between about 200,000—60,000 years ago, including Upper Paleolithic humans from Dolni Vestonice, Mladec, Prednosti and Zhoukoudian Upper Cave; early AMH from Omo Kibish and Skuhl caves; Neanderthals from Chapelle aux Saintes and Atapuerca, and Archaic Homo from Ngangdong, Sangiran and Zhoukoudian lower cave.
They chose to look at skull shapes, primarily because that's what has survived all these long millennia. Neanderthal and Archaic Homo skulls cluster tightly; but anatomically modern humans, interestingly enough, overlap and vary. The researchers suggest that this variation and overlap results from the dispersal of human groups in Africa first and again later, leaving Africa by different routes, at different times.
Although the researchers do not detail it, I'm going to be interested to see what they make of the South African Howiesons Poort/Stillbay data, which would seem clearly to be a set of "isolated" sites.
Theories of Human Migration
Isolation by Distance Theory of Human Population. Click to see larger image and caption.
Photo by Philipp Gunz, University of Vienna & Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology Leipzig.


Comments
This is good that people started to think out of those two theories (multiregional approach and out-of-Africa). I think that for the moment we know so less to generalize everything and find a final solution to the dispersals of hominids. We should evaluate how much we know, and how much we generalize…